Tag: Singularity Tracker
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Carbon nanotubes were supposed to replace silicon. The Internet was supposed to route around failures. Both bets aged badly.
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Lanier said software was too brittle to scale. Twenty-one years later, transformers and evolutionary code search make the case for Kurzweil’s self-organizing bet.
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Kurzweil bet that humor and claimed feelings would settle the consciousness debate by the 2030s. The capability arrived four years early. The debate did not end — it intensified.
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Six 2005 society-scale predictions, graded against 2026 patent grants, FDA rules, GDP data, and Meta’s Reality Labs balance sheet.
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Awareness has saturated; the bridges to radical life extension haven’t. A scorecard on Kurzweil’s longevity predictions twenty years on.
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The 2020s were supposed to inflect life expectancy upward. They didn’t. But the molecular machinery Kurzweil predicted just entered human trials.
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Kurzweil predicted nano-fuel cells and microwings. We got lithium-ion automotive packs and FAA Stage 4 type certification — same destination, wrong chemistry.
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Twenty years after The Singularity Is Near, some of the rebuttal chapters aged worse than the forecasts. The microtubule critics, the input-latency critics, and the reversible-computing skeptics all have new data.
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Kurzweil bet the 2020s would bring three-dimensional computing. He was right about the destination and wrong about the path.
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Kurzweil promised by the 2010s we’d wear computers in our clothing and see displays through our contacts. The destination came, but through phones, earbuds, and Ray-Bans — not the vehicles he named.