Tag: Singularity Tracker
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Kurzweil predicted the pocket supercomputer in 2005 and bet it on two underlying trends. Twenty years later, one trend is dead on the regression line. The other moved categories. The phone won anyway.
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AlphaEvolve beat Strassen’s 1969 matrix algorithm and shipped a kernel into Gemini’s own training loop. Kurzweil’s recursive self-improvement trigger has fired — just not in the shape he drew.
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Carver Mead’s analog neuromorphic bet has shipped — in IBM, Intel, and BrainChip silicon. It runs less than one-fifth of one percent of the AI chip market.
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Two 1940s neuron models walked into the future. The simpler one won the production economy by orders of magnitude. The biologically faithful one survives in a research niche.
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Kurzweil predicted neurochips would carry us to superintelligence. Matrix multiply units carried us instead — and the compute is broadly on track for 2045 while the intelligence keeps slipping out of the framework.
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Kurzweil predicted three enabling technologies and the death of print. Three arrived. Print didn’t die.
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Kurzweil pointed at the wrong telescope, the wrong observatory, the wrong funder — and the right capability.
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Kurzweil bet three cosmic footnotes against the next 20 years of physics. Black holes paid. Webb’s quasar lines and the Jafferis wormhole did not.
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Kurzweil’s 2005 footnote on dendritic spines turned out to be load-bearing — and the same biology now writes English from inside a paralyzed patient’s cortex.
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A frozen-cell line from 1980 produced a living foal in 2020. The Tasmanian tiger claim Kurzweil leaned on collapsed the same year his book published.