Tag: Singularity Tracker
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Six approved siRNA drugs and zero of them treat infection or cancer. The COVID lab tested every prediction in Kurzweil’s biosecurity chapter, and the molecule he championed won the wrong race.
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Solar modules really are about as cheap as newspaper. They just didn’t get there through Drexler’s molecular assemblers — they got there through Chinese silicon factories and perovskite tandems.
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Solar arrived ahead of Kurzweil’s schedule. The microscopic fuel cells he paired with it died in a Boston warehouse in 2013.
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Kurzweil cited 1964 lower bounds as facts. By 2024 BB(5) had a machine-checked proof and BB(6) needed pentation notation.
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Kurzweil’s 2005 defense of speech recognition got every claim right and the architecture wrong: HMMs lost to transformers, but the destination arrived bigger than promised.
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Kurzweil bet machine-rights litigation would lead. Idaho and Utah passed statutes to block it. The cloud he expected to distribute concentrated instead.
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Twenty years on, the anatomy survived. The grand cognitive theories did not.
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Kurzweil called the curves on connectomics and brain decoding. He missed on the wires — optic nerve, spindle cells, and millisecond fMRI.
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Twenty years after Kurzweil predicted gray goo, blue goo, and brain-replacing nanobots, the threat model evaporated and a different nanotech stack — DNA origami, monocyte-piggybacking implants, stentrode brain interfaces — quietly delivered the medicine he didn’t predict.
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The NSA quietly patented a reversible-computing fluxon circuit in 2024. Vaire taped out a chip that recovers half its energy in 2025. Kurzweil predicted this twenty years ago — but the path looks different than he drew it.