Tag: Singularity Tracker
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Twelve Kurzweil predictions about brain prosthetics, tested against the patents granted last quarter and the papers in NEJM from last October.
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Kurzweil predicted diamondoid organs by the 2030s. What shipped is peptide drugs, living cells, and a titanium impeller on a magnetic field.
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Ray Kurzweil’s 2005 medical predictions mostly reached their destinations — but almost never by the roads he named.
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Twelve 2005 predictions on cell therapy, gene therapy, anti-amyloid vaccines, and diamondoid nanobots scored against 2026 clinical trials, patent filings, and approvals.
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Twenty years after The Singularity Is Near, 3D NAND is everywhere, Nantero still hasn’t shipped, and the mesh lost to the cloud.
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Kurzweil’s curve kept bending. Almost none of the specific mechanisms he nominated to keep it bending actually arrived.
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Kurzweil bet on rotaxanes, nanotubes, and self-assembling polymers to carry computing past silicon. Twenty years later, only spintronics made it to market — and the brain got matched anyway.
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Kurzweil predicted molecular computing as the sixth paradigm. What arrived was 3D-stacked silicon, reversible logic startups, and an AI power crisis nobody saw coming.
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Kurzweil predicted strong AI via brain reverse-engineering. It arrived via transformers and text. Every destination was right. Every route was wrong.
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Kurzweil predicted human-level AI by the mid-2020s. He got the direction right and the mechanism completely wrong.