Tag: Kurzweil Scorecard
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Two 1940s neuron models walked into the future. The simpler one won the production economy by orders of magnitude. The biologically faithful one survives in a research niche.
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Kurzweil predicted neurochips would carry us to superintelligence. Matrix multiply units carried us instead — and the compute is broadly on track for 2045 while the intelligence keeps slipping out of the framework.
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Kurzweil predicted three enabling technologies and the death of print. Three arrived. Print didn’t die.
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Kurzweil pointed at the wrong telescope, the wrong observatory, the wrong funder — and the right capability.
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Kurzweil bet three cosmic footnotes against the next 20 years of physics. Black holes paid. Webb’s quasar lines and the Jafferis wormhole did not.
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Kurzweil’s 2005 footnote on dendritic spines turned out to be load-bearing — and the same biology now writes English from inside a paralyzed patient’s cortex.
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A frozen-cell line from 1980 produced a living foal in 2020. The Tasmanian tiger claim Kurzweil leaned on collapsed the same year his book published.
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Six approved siRNA drugs and zero of them treat infection or cancer. The COVID lab tested every prediction in Kurzweil’s biosecurity chapter, and the molecule he championed won the wrong race.
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Solar modules really are about as cheap as newspaper. They just didn’t get there through Drexler’s molecular assemblers — they got there through Chinese silicon factories and perovskite tandems.
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Solar arrived ahead of Kurzweil’s schedule. The microscopic fuel cells he paired with it died in a Boston warehouse in 2013.