Tag: Solar
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Kurzweil bet the 2020s and 2030s would run on nanoengineered fuel cells. The 2024 book quietly dropped them. Solar, batteries, and power electronics took the decentralization story instead.
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Solar modules really are about as cheap as newspaper. They just didn’t get there through Drexler’s molecular assemblers — they got there through Chinese silicon factories and perovskite tandems.
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Kurzweil predicted nano-fuel cells and microwings. We got lithium-ion automotive packs and FAA Stage 4 type certification — same destination, wrong chemistry.
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Kurzweil bet on hydrogen cars, microbial cells, and sonofusion in 2005. Silicon photovoltaics quietly won everything.
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Solar got cheaper than Kurzweil dared predict. Then AI broke the demand-side story.
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CATL, the world’s largest battery maker, has 12 US patents on perovskite solar cell fabrication. The manufacturing DNA is nearly identical. A 48,000-paper field is about to meet the factory floor.