Ray Kurzweil’s 2005 answer to his critics rested on reversible computing, algorithmic progress, and the claim that complex software isn’t brittle. Twenty years later, the silicon held up. The software part did not.
Twenty years after The Singularity Is Near, 3D NAND is everywhere, Nantero still hasn’t shipped, and the mesh lost to the cloud.
Kurzweil’s curve kept bending. Almost none of the specific mechanisms he nominated to keep it bending actually arrived.